Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
